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      <image:caption>Expected Value — Better Decisions Through Probabilistic Thinking</image:caption>
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    <loc>https://expectedvalue.co.uk/about</loc>
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      <image:caption>About Expected Value</image:caption>
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    <loc>https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/anchoring-bias</loc>
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      <image:caption>Anchoring Bias: How First Numbers Hijack Judgement</image:caption>
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    <loc>https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/base-rate-neglect</loc>
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      <image:caption>Base Rate Neglect: Why Your Intuitions Are Wrong</image:caption>
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      <image:caption>Bayesian Thinking for Everyday Decisions</image:caption>
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  <url>
    <loc>https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/best-books-probabilistic-thinking-decision-making</loc>
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      <image:caption>12 Best Books on Probabilistic Thinking and Decision-Making</image:caption>
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  <url>
    <loc>https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/correlation-vs-causation</loc>
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      <image:caption>Correlation vs Causation: A Probabilistic Thinking Guide</image:caption>
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      <image:caption>The Dunning-Kruger Effect: Why We Overestimate Our Abilities</image:caption>
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      <image:caption>Expected Value Explained: The Decision-Making Concept</image:caption>
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      <image:caption>The False Positive Paradox: Why Positive Tests Mislead</image:caption>
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  <url>
    <loc>https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/gamblers-fallacy</loc>
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      <image:caption>The Gambler&apos;s Fallacy: Why You&apos;re Wrong About &apos;Due&apos; Outcomes</image:caption>
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  <url>
    <loc>https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/hindsight-bias</loc>
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      <image:caption>Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Looks Obvious After the Fact</image:caption>
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    <loc>https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/how-prediction-markets-work</loc>
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      <image:caption>How Prediction Markets Work — Probability Meets Money</image:caption>
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      <image:caption>The Kelly Criterion: How to Size Your Bets Optimally</image:caption>
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      <image:caption>Loss Aversion: Why Losses Hurt Twice as Much</image:caption>
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    <loc>https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/position-sizing-kelly-criterion</loc>
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      <image:caption>Position Sizing: How Much to Bet When You Have an Edge</image:caption>
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    <loc>https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/probabilistic-framework-career-decisions</loc>
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      <image:caption>A Probabilistic Framework for Career Decisions</image:caption>
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      <image:caption>Probability vs Odds: The Difference and Why It Matters</image:caption>
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      <image:caption>Risk vs Uncertainty: The Distinction That Matters</image:caption>
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      <image:caption>Second-Order Thinking: How to See Around Corners</image:caption>
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  <url>
    <loc>https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/sunk-cost-fallacy</loc>
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      <image:caption>Sunk Cost Fallacy: When to Quit and When to Persist</image:caption>
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    <loc>https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/thinking-in-probabilities</loc>
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      <image:caption>Thinking in Probabilities: Why Your Brain Is Bad at Risk</image:caption>
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  <url>
    <loc>https://expectedvalue.co.uk/tools</loc>
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