Editorial Policy

Expected Value is an editorial resource on probability, decision-making under uncertainty, behavioural economics, and the practical application of expected-value thinking. Our credibility depends on getting the maths right and citing it correctly. This policy documents how the content is made.

Independence

Expected Value is independently operated. We do not accept payment in exchange for favourable coverage, do not allow vendors to review or alter editorial content before publication, and do not adjust positions based on commission rates. Where affiliate links appear, they are disclosed on the affiliate disclosure page. Where we cite a book, a paper, or a course as recommended reading, the recommendation is not contingent on whether a link exists.

Sourcing

This is a numbers site. Reviews and guides are research-led and citation-heavy. We cite primary sources wherever possible — peer-reviewed papers, working papers from named academics (Kahneman, Tversky, Thaler, Taleb, Mauboussin, and the broader behavioural-economics canon), original data sets, regulatory filings, and direct quotations from named authors. Where a claim has no supporting source, we say so plainly rather than asserting it as fact, and we hedge with language that reflects the uncertainty ("approximately", "based on a sample of N", "as reported by X").

We do not quote or paraphrase content from competing decision-science sites or pop-science blog posts without attribution, and we do not republish forum or social-media commentary as our own analysis.

Accuracy and corrections

Every published article is reviewed by a human editor for factual accuracy before publication. Probabilities, study findings, and worked examples are the most failure-prone parts of writing in this niche — a single transposed digit or a misread confidence interval changes the conclusion. Every numerical claim is checked against its source before publication and dated. If you spot a factual error — particularly a maths error — please flag it. We will correct it, date the correction, and note what was changed.

What we will not publish

• Fabricated first-person experience ("I ran a 1,000-trial simulation") that did not happen.
• Fabricated reader testimonials or quotes from people who do not exist.
• Invented credentials, certifications, or academic affiliations.
• Statistics without a citable source.
• Worked examples whose arithmetic doesn't actually check out.
• Claims of "guaranteed" outcomes in a domain whose entire subject matter is the impossibility of guarantees.

AI use

AI assists with research synthesis, drafting, and editing. A human editor reviews every published piece, with extra attention to numerical and probabilistic claims. See the AI use disclosure page for the detailed policy.