Think in Probabilities, Not Predictions
Master the mental models that separate good decision-makers from everyone else. From expected value to cognitive biases, learn the frameworks that drive better outcomes in investing, career, and life.
It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.
Core Topics
A structured curriculum for thinking more clearly under uncertainty
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Fundamentals
Expected value, probability basics, Bayesian updating, and the mathematical foundations of rational decision-making.
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Cognitive Biases
The systematic errors in human thinking that distort our judgement - and practical techniques for debiasing yourself.
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Investing
Position sizing with the Kelly Criterion, portfolio construction, risk management, and thinking probabilistically about markets.
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Strategy
Game theory, decision trees, optionality, and strategic frameworks for navigating complex decisions with incomplete information.
Featured Articles
Start with these - they build on each other
Expected Value Explained
The Kelly Criterion: Optimal Bet Sizing
Why Your Brain Is Bad at Risk
The Expected Value Approach
Why this framework matters for everyone, not just quants
90 %
Of Cognitive Biases Are Unconscious
2 x
Loss Aversion vs Gains
10,000 +
Decisions Per Day
No Prior Maths Required
Every concept is explained with concrete examples, not abstract notation. If you can multiply, you can use expected value.
Immediately Applicable
Each article ends with practical takeaways you can apply to real decisions - from insurance purchases to career changes.
Evidence-Based
Grounded in decades of research from behavioural economics, decision science, and probability theory.
Built to Be Re-Read
These aren't news articles. They're reference material designed to deepen with each reading.
New Articles & Mental Models
Occasional emails when we publish new articles on probability, decision-making, and strategic thinking. No fluff.