Tools & Resources
Platforms, tools, and books we actually use — selected for evidence-based thinkers, not affiliate commissions.
There are thousands of investing platforms, productivity apps, and books competing for your attention. Most "best of" lists rank them by commission rate, not quality.
We take a different approach. Everything on this page meets three criteria:
- Evidence of effectiveness — does research or real-world data support using this?
- Cost-efficiency — does the fee structure make mathematical sense for the typical user?
- Alignment with probabilistic thinking — does the tool encourage rational decision-making, or does it exploit behavioural biases?
If something stops meeting these criteria, we remove it. If we find something better, we add it.
Investing Platforms
Where to put your money to work
The single most important variable in platform selection is fees. A 1% annual fee difference compounds into tens of thousands of pounds over a lifetime of investing. Every platform below charges significantly less than the industry average — that's the minimum bar for inclusion.
Which one suits you depends on your experience level and what you're investing in.
Trading 212
Commission-free trading with fractional shares from as little as £1. The Stocks & Shares ISA is genuinely free (no platform fee, no trading fee). The interest on uninvested cash is competitive. Best for: beginners who want to start small and learn by doing, or experienced investors who want zero-fee ISA investing.
Visit Trading 212Freetrade
Clean, simple interface that strips away the noise. The free tier covers basic investing; the Plus plan (£5.99/month) unlocks the ISA and SIPP. A genuinely UK-focused platform that doesn't try to be everything to everyone. Best for: UK investors who value simplicity and want ISA + pension in one place.
Visit FreetradeInteractive Brokers
The serious option. Access to markets in 150+ countries, the lowest margin rates in the industry, and a currency conversion fee of just 0.002%. The interface has a learning curve, but the cost savings are substantial for larger portfolios. Best for: experienced investors who want international diversification and the lowest possible fees at scale.
Visit Interactive BrokersVanguard Investor
The set-and-forget choice. Vanguard pioneered low-cost index investing, and their UK platform charges just 0.15% (capped at £375/year). Limited to Vanguard's own funds — which is arguably a feature, not a bug. You won't be tempted to overtrade. Best for: long-term investors who want diversified index funds and minimal decision fatigue.
Visit VanguardDecision-Making Tools
Sharpen your thinking with practice and data
Reading about probabilistic thinking is a good start. But calibration — the ability to accurately assess how confident you should be — only improves through deliberate practice. These tools help you move from theory to skill.
Metaculus
A forecasting platform where you predict real-world events and get scored on accuracy. The best free way to practice calibration. Track your Brier score over time and see where your predictions are systematically off. Used by researchers and intelligence analysts.
Try MetaculusGood Judgment Open
From the team behind Philip Tetlock's superforecasting research. Pose geopolitical and economic forecasting questions with structured feedback. More rigorous than casual prediction markets — designed specifically to improve calibration.
Try Good JudgmentPortfolio Performance
Free, open-source portfolio tracking software. No cloud dependency, no subscription fees, no data harvesting. Tracks true time-weighted returns, fees, dividends, and tax events. The honest way to know whether your investment decisions are actually working.
DownloadSpreadsheet Templates
Sometimes the best decision tool is a well-structured spreadsheet. We're building a library of templates for common expected value calculations:
- Decision matrix — weight criteria, score options, calculate expected outcomes
- Kelly criterion calculator — optimal position sizing based on your edge and odds
- Monte Carlo retirement planner — simulate thousands of market scenarios instead of relying on a single "average return"
These will be available as free downloads as we develop them. In the meantime, the concepts behind each are covered in our Fundamentals articles.
Books
The reading list for evidence-based thinkers
Five books that genuinely changed how we think about decisions, risk, and uncertainty. Not a "top 100" list — just the ones we keep coming back to.
Thinking, Fast and Slow — Daniel Kahneman
The foundational text on cognitive biases and dual-process theory. Kahneman spent a career studying how humans systematically misjudge probability, and this book distils decades of Nobel Prize-winning research into something genuinely readable. If you read one book from this list, make it this one. It won't make you perfectly rational — but it will make you aware of exactly how you're irrational.
View on AmazonSuperforecasting — Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner
What separates people who are good at predicting the future from those who aren't? Tetlock's research found it's not intelligence or domain expertise — it's a specific set of thinking habits: updating beliefs incrementally, considering base rates, aggregating diverse perspectives. This book is the practical manual for better calibration.
View on AmazonThe Signal and the Noise — Nate Silver
A tour through fields where prediction matters — elections, weather, earthquakes, baseball, poker — examining why some forecasters succeed and others fail. Silver's central insight: the best predictors are the ones who think probabilistically, express uncertainty honestly, and update their models when new evidence arrives. Sound familiar?
View on AmazonFooled by Randomness — Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Taleb's most accessible book (and arguably his best). The core argument: humans are terrible at distinguishing skill from luck, and this confusion leads to catastrophically bad decisions in finance, business, and life. Read this before you attribute your portfolio returns to stock-picking genius — or before you dismiss someone's failure as incompetence.
View on AmazonThe Psychology of Money — Morgan Housel
A short, beautifully written book about the emotional and psychological side of financial decisions. Housel's key insight: doing well with money has less to do with intelligence and more to do with behaviour. The chapter on compounding alone is worth the price. Pairs well with the more analytical books above — this one covers the human element they tend to skip.
View on AmazonNew to Probabilistic Thinking?
Start with the concept that underpins everything on this site — and learn why expected value is the single most useful mental model for making decisions under uncertainty.