#conditional probability

2 articles tagged

The Prosecutor's Fallacy: How Courts Get Statistics Wrong

Confusing P(evidence | innocent) with P(innocent | evidence) sends innocent people to prison. The Sally Clark case and how to spot the trap.

conditional probabilitycourtroom statisticsSally ClarkBayesfallacies
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The Monty Hall Problem: Why You Should Always Switch

The Monty Hall problem looks 50/50 and isn't — switching doors wins two-thirds of the time. Here's why, with five proofs and the famous cont...

probabilityconditional probabilitypuzzlesbayes theoremfundamentals
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