Category
Tools & Resources.
Practical tools and resources for applying probabilistic thinking in your daily life. Calculators, spreadsheets, book recommendations, courses, and software that help you quantify uncertainty, track your predictions, and improve your calibration over time.
4 posts in Tools & Resources
decision making
15 Best Decision Making Books to Change How You Think
15 best decision-making books - choice architecture, behavioural economics, frameworks, and habits. Mini-reviews, who each is for, and reading order.
second order thinking
Second-Order Thinking: How to See Around Corners
Most decisions are made on first-order effects, but second-order consequences are where the surprises live. A framework for seeing past the obvious.
kelly criterion
Kelly Criterion Calculator: Betting, Investing, Poker
Step-by-step Kelly Criterion calculator with worked examples for sports betting, investing and poker. Convert odds to stake percentages instantly.
expected value
Expected Value Calculator: How to Calculate EV Step-by-Step
Learn how to calculate expected value with a clear formula, four worked examples (betting, investing, insurance, career) and the common mistakes to avoid.