Category
Strategy.
From career choices to business decisions, strategy is applied probability. Learn decision frameworks like expected value analysis, scenario planning, pre-mortems, and Kelly criterion sizing. These practical guides help you structure complex decisions and make consistently better choices when the stakes are high.
thinking in bets
Thinking in Bets: Decisions Like a Poker Pro
Annie Duke's Thinking in Bets reframes every decision as a bet under uncertainty. The ideas of resulting, calibration, and decision groups.
expected value
Expected Value in Poker: Pot Odds, EV & Decisions
Expected value in poker - pot odds, implied odds, EV of bluffs and folds. Worked hand examples showing how the maths translates into better decisions.
kelly criterion
Fractional Kelly: Why Half Kelly Is the Smart Default
Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but emotionally brutal. Why half Kelly is the practical default, when to scale up or down, and how the pros use it.
decision-making
Decision Trees: A Visual Framework for Complex Choices
Decision trees turn tangled choices into a diagram you can actually solve. Build one in five steps, work through three examples, and avoid common traps.
strategy
A Probabilistic Framework for Career Decisions
Use expected value, scenario planning and Kelly-style sizing to evaluate job offers, career pivots and salary negotiations honestly.
Expected Value in Poker Tournaments
EV in poker tournaments: ICM considerations, bubble dynamics, when raw chip-EV diverges from actual tournament-EV.
Nassim Taleb
Black Swan Events: How to Prepare for the Unpredictable
Black swan events explained: Taleb's definition, examples (2008, COVID, AI surge), and the barbell strategy + antifragility approach.
calibration
Probability Calibration: Predict Like a Superforecaster
Learn probability calibration like a superforecaster - Brier scores, drills, and free tools to sharpen your forecasts. Based on Philip Tetlock's research.
FIRE
UK FIRE Movement 2026: The Complete Roadmap
A UK FIRE roadmap for 2026: the 4% rule, your real number, the tax-wrapper order, and the ISA bridge to pension access age. Honest maths, no hype.
Where Can You Actually Find Positive Expected Value?
Almost every bet is negative-EV by design. Here are the few places an ordinary person can genuinely find positive expected value.
pre-mortem
The Pre-Mortem - Imagine Your Decision Already Failed
The pre-mortem flips the post-mortem on its head: imagine the decision has already failed, then work backwards to find what optimism hides.
decision making
Decision Journals: Track Your Thinking to Improve It
A decision journal is the only honest record of how well you actually think. What to record, when to review, and the mistakes that ruin the practice.