About Expected Value

Quantitative thinking for everyone - not just quants.

Editorial illustration of a thinker weighing options on a balance scale, suggesting deliberate, probability-aware reasoning.

Why This Site Exists

The ideas on this site - probability, expected value, decision theory, cognitive biases - are some of the most practically useful concepts ever developed. Yet most people never encounter them outside a university lecture hall or a dense textbook. Expected Value exists to change that. We research, distil, and explain these powerful mental models so that anyone - investor, entrepreneur, student, or curious generalist - can use them to make better decisions.

The Approach

Every article is written to be useful on first read and worth revisiting. No unnecessary jargon, no academic gatekeeping. If you finish an article and think differently about a decision you're facing, we've done our job. This isn't about being smarter than anyone else. It's about having a better framework for thinking about uncertainty - and that's a skill anyone can learn.

Editorial Standards

How we research and write

Research-driven

Every article draws from published research, textbooks, and established sources in probability theory, behavioural economics, and decision science. We cite our sources.

Accuracy over speed

We verify mathematical examples, check formulas, and test calculations before publishing. If we're unsure about something, we say so.

No fake expertise

This is an editorial resource, not a personal blog from a hedge fund manager. We synthesise expert knowledge to make it accessible - we don't claim credentials we don't have.

Honest about limitations

Probabilistic thinking is powerful but not magic. We're upfront about where models break down and where uncertainty is genuinely irreducible.

What This Site Covers

A structured curriculum for better decision-making

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Probability & Expected Value

Core mathematical frameworks for reasoning under uncertainty. The foundation everything else builds on.

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Cognitive Biases

The systematic errors in human thinking that distort our judgement - and practical techniques for debiasing.

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Investing & Risk

Position sizing, portfolio theory, and evidence-based approaches to investment decisions.

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Decision Science

Frameworks for making better choices when outcomes are uncertain. Applicable to business, career, and everyday life.

How We Make Money

Transparency matters. This site earns revenue through:

Affiliate links: When we mention investing platforms, books, or tools, we sometimes include affiliate links. If you sign up or purchase through one, we earn a small commission at no extra cost to you. This never influences our editorial content - we recommend based on merit alone.

Display advertising: You may see ads on our pages. We aim to keep these unobtrusive.

We don't accept sponsored content, and no company can pay to influence our recommendations or analysis.

Start From the Beginning

The foundational concept that everything else on this site builds upon.

Read Expected Value Explained