About Expected Value
Quantitative thinking for everyone - not just quants.
Editorial Standards
How we research and write
Research-driven
Every article draws from published research, textbooks, and established sources in probability theory, behavioural economics, and decision science. We cite our sources.
Accuracy over speed
We verify mathematical examples, check formulas, and test calculations before publishing. If we're unsure about something, we say so.
No fake expertise
This is an editorial resource, not a personal blog from a hedge fund manager. We synthesise expert knowledge to make it accessible - we don't claim credentials we don't have.
Honest about limitations
Probabilistic thinking is powerful but not magic. We're upfront about where models break down and where uncertainty is genuinely irreducible.
What This Site Covers
A structured curriculum for better decision-making
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Probability & Expected Value
Core mathematical frameworks for reasoning under uncertainty. The foundation everything else builds on.
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Cognitive Biases
The systematic errors in human thinking that distort our judgement - and practical techniques for debiasing.
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Investing & Risk
Position sizing, portfolio theory, and evidence-based approaches to investment decisions.
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Decision Science
Frameworks for making better choices when outcomes are uncertain. Applicable to business, career, and everyday life.
How We Make Money
Transparency matters. This site earns revenue through:
Affiliate links: When we mention investing platforms, books, or tools, we sometimes include affiliate links. If you sign up or purchase through one, we earn a small commission at no extra cost to you. This never influences our editorial content - we recommend based on merit alone.
Display advertising: You may see ads on our pages. We aim to keep these unobtrusive.
We don't accept sponsored content, and no company can pay to influence our recommendations or analysis.