Category
Cognitive Biases.
Your brain is wired to misjudge probability. Anchoring, availability bias, the gamblers fallacy, sunk cost thinking — these mental shortcuts helped our ancestors survive but they consistently lead to poor decisions in modern life. Learn to recognise these biases in yourself and others, and discover practical techniques to counteract them.
thinking fast and slow
Thinking, Fast and Slow: The Bias Book Worth the Hype
Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow is the canonical text on cognitive bias. What it gets right, what hasn't aged well, and whether to buy it.
status quo bias
Status Quo Bias: Why We Stick with Defaults
Status quo bias explained: the cognitive tendency to stick with defaults. UK financial impact: pension funds, insurance renewals, current accounts.
gamblers fallacy
The Gambler's Fallacy: Why You're Wrong About 'Due' Outcomes
The Gambler's Fallacy: why we wrongly believe random outcomes are 'due'. The cognitive trap, where it costs you, and how to think clearly under randomness.
12 Cognitive Biases That Wreck Probability Estimates
The 12 cognitive biases that most consistently distort probability judgements - what each one does and how to defend against it.
hindsight bias
Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Looks Obvious After the Fact
Hindsight bias makes the past feel inevitable. Here's why it distorts post-mortems, juries and investing - and how to fight it.
cognitive biases
Loss Aversion: Why Losses Hurt Twice as Much
Loss aversion: why losses hurt twice as much as equivalent gains feel good. The Kahneman/Tversky research, where it warps decisions, and how to counter it.
conditional probability
The Prosecutor's Fallacy: How Courts Get Statistics Wrong
Confusing P(evidence | innocent) with P(innocent | evidence) sends innocent people to prison. The Sally Clark case and how to spot the trap.
dunning kruger
The Dunning-Kruger Effect: Why We Overestimate Our Abilities
The Dunning-Kruger effect: the gap between how good people think they are and how good they actually are. The real research is more useful than the chart.
bayesian thinking
Bayesian Thinking for Everyday Decisions
Bayesian thinking - the art of changing your mind rationally. How to update beliefs with evidence, with examples from interviews, medicine, and investing.
cognitive biases
Anchoring Bias: How First Numbers Hijack Judgement
Anchoring bias: why the first number you hear silently warps every estimate that follows - with research, examples, and debiasing strategies that work.
base rate fallacy
Base Rate Neglect: Why Your Intuitions Are Wrong
Base rate neglect is one of the most costly cognitive biases. Why most positive medical tests are wrong, and how to train yourself to think in base rates.
Mental Accounting Fallacy Explained
Mental accounting fallacy: separating money into psychological 'buckets' distorts financial decisions; budgeting + investment implications.
availability heuristic
The Availability Heuristic: Why Vivid Examples Mislead
Why we judge risk by what comes to mind first - fear of flying, market news, terrorism - and the practical techniques to debias your thinking.
Conjunction Fallacy in Business Decisions
Conjunction fallacy in business: how compound probability errors distort startup planning, investment scenarios, project timelines.
cognitive biases
Sunk Cost Fallacy: When to Quit and When to Persist
The sunk cost fallacy: why we keep investing in losing decisions. The bias, the psychology, and a clear test for when to quit and when to persist.
Risk Aversion vs Loss Aversion Explained
Risk aversion vs loss aversion: the behavioural distinction; investment + portfolio implications; how each affects decisions.
cognitive biases
Thinking in Probabilities: Why Your Brain Is Bad at Risk
Your brain systematically misjudges probability. Learn the cognitive biases that distort risk perception and how to calibrate better.
cognitive bias
Framing Effect: Why How You Hear It Changes Your Choice
The framing effect: identical numbers presented differently produce opposite decisions. Asian Disease Problem, gain vs loss framing, defences.
Availability Cascade in Markets
Availability cascade in markets: how compounding information cascades amplify trends, create bubbles, and drive systematic mispricing.
cognitive bias
Recency Bias in Investing and Sports Predictions
Recency bias: why investors chase last quarter's winners and bettors back the form team. The mechanics, the cost, and the four tools that defuse it.
survivorship bias
Survivorship Bias: The Hidden Data That Changes Everything
Survivorship bias hides the failures behind every success story - from WWII bombers to mutual funds. How to spot the missing data and decide better.
cognitive biases
Overconfidence Bias: Why Active Traders Underperform
Overconfidence bias is investing's most expensive cognitive error. How overestimation, the planning fallacy and overprecision hide it, and what fixes it.
cognitive biases
Confirmation Bias in Investing: Fight Your Own Brain
Confirmation bias quietly destroys investment returns. Here's how it works in markets - and the three techniques that actually neutralise it.
cognitive biases
Endowment Effect Explained: Why You Overvalue What You Own
The endowment effect makes you value the things you own more highly than identical things you do not. Here is why it happens, with worked examples.