Catalogue
Products.
3 products · highest rated first
Penguin / Random House
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance
Nassim Taleb's 2001 book on luck in success and how survivorship bias distorts judgment of skill in finance + business. First Incerto text.
Penguin
The Signal and the Noise: Why Predictions Fail
Nate Silver's 2012 book on probabilistic forecasting across weather, sports, poker, economics, politics. Builds the case for Bayesian reasoning.
Penguin / Random House
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Philip Tetlock + Dan Gardner's 2015 book on Good Judgment Project research into what makes forecasters more accurate. Foundational text.