#cognitive biases

9 articles tagged

Bayesian Thinking for Everyday Decisions

Bayesian thinking — the art of changing your mind rationally. How to update beliefs with evidence, with examples from interviews, medicine, ...

bayesian thinkingprobabilitydecision-makingcognitive biasesrational thinking
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Thinking in Probabilities: Why Your Brain Is Bad at Risk

Your brain systematically misjudges probability. Learn about the cognitive biases that distort risk perception and practical techniques for ...

cognitive biasesprobabilitydecision-makingcalibrationriskbehavioural economics
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Base Rate Neglect: Why Your Intuitions Are Wrong

Base rate neglect is one of the most costly cognitive biases. Why most positive medical tests are wrong, and how to train yourself to think ...

base rate fallacycognitive biasesprobabilitydecision-makingbase rate neglect
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Sunk Cost Fallacy: When to Quit and When to Persist

The sunk cost fallacy: why we keep investing in losing decisions. The bias, the psychology behind it, and a clear test for when to quit and ...

cognitive biasessunk costdecision makinginvestingpsychology
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Loss Aversion: Why Losses Hurt Twice as Much

Loss aversion: why losses hurt twice as much as equivalent gains feel good. The Kahneman/Tversky research, where it warps decisions, and how...

cognitive biasesbehavioural economicsprospect theoryinvestingdecision making
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Anchoring Bias: How First Numbers Hijack Judgement

Anchoring bias: why the first number you hear silently warps every estimate that follows — with research, real examples, and debiasing strat...

cognitive biasesanchoringnegotiationbehavioural economicsdecision making
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The Dunning-Kruger Effect: Why We Overestimate Our Abilities

The Dunning-Kruger effect: the gap between how good people think they are and how good they actually are. The real research is more useful t...

dunning krugercognitive biasesmetacognitioncalibrationdecision making
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The Gambler's Fallacy: Why You're Wrong About 'Due' Outcomes

The Gambler's Fallacy: why we wrongly believe random outcomes are 'due'. The cognitive trap, where it costs you, and how to think clearly un...

gamblers fallacycognitive biasesprobabilitydecision-making
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Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Looks Obvious After the Fact

Hindsight bias makes the past feel inevitable. Here's why it distorts post-mortems, juries and investing — and how to fight it.

hindsight biascognitive biasesdecision-makinginvestingrationalitybehavioural economics
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